The Map and the Territory

전 미연준 의장이었던 앨런 그린스펀의 특이한 책이다. 96년도에 주가가 비이성적으로 올라갔다며 시장을 비난하며 그린스펀은 경제가 새로운 시대에 진입했다고 인정했다. 경계가 없는 글로벌 경제체제에서 새로운 기준이 무엇인가를 말해준다.
The Map and the Territory 는 우리의 예측에 대한 개념적 체계를 업데이트하기 위한 노력의 산물이다. 이 책은 경제 예측의 역사와 능동적인 경제학자의 새로운 노력, 그리고 저자의 눈부신 이력에서 비롯된 산물을 융합하여, 우리가 경제 예측에 대해 알 수 있는 것들과 그렇지 못한 것들에 대한 실질적인 기초를 짜릿할 정도로 명료하게 이야기한다.

책은 문화가 어떻게 운명이 되거나 되지 않거나 하는지를 살펴보고, 부채와 복지 개혁에서 지구 온난화의 시대에 도래한 자연적 재앙에 이르기까지 세계에서 가장 거대한 도전들에 대해 우리가 무엇을 예측할 수 있는지 보여준다.

지도가 없는 것이 영역이다. 하지만 그린스펀은 자신의 트레이드 마크인 엄격함, 경륜, 그리고 전례없는 맥락에 기초를 둔 접근법을 통해 이 특별한 지도가 다양한 길을 안전하게 여행하는 개인, 회사, 그리고 국가에게 길잡이를 해준다.

Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us?

To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we re conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we re steering by out-of-date maps, when we re not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control.

The Map and the Territory smartly updates our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioural economists and the fruits of the author s own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can t. The book explores how culture is and isn t destiny and probes what we can predict about the world s biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming.

Alan Greenspan s approach, grounded in his trademark rigour, wisdom and unprecedented experience, offers a master class in economic decision making.

ALAN GREENSPAN was born in 1926 and reared in the Washington Heights neighborhood of New York City. After studying the clarinet at Juilliard and working as a professional musician, he earned his B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. in economics from New York University. In 1954, he cofounded the economic consulting firm Townsend-Greenspan & Co. From 1974 to 1977, he served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Gerald Ford. In 1987, President Ronald Reagan appointed him chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, a position he held until his retirement in 2006.

He is the author of the number one International bestseller The Age of Turbulence.